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Preliminary Food Crop Production Assessment for 2019/2020 Food Security

The 2018/2019 Preliminary Food Crop Production Forecast (PFCPF) amounts 16,408,309
metric tons grain equivalent, of which 9,007,909 metric tons constitute cereals and 7,400,400
metric tons comprise non-cereals. Requirement for 2019/2020 marketing year amounts
13,842,536 metric tons of which cereals make up 8,754,119 metric tons and non-cereals
constitute the rest, 5,088,417 metric tons.
Based on these production and requirement figures, a Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) of 119 has
been attained in terms of total food crops whereby cereals make up 103 and non-cereals make
up 145. In terms of gap/surplus analysis, this is respectively 2,565,774 metric tons surplus of
total food, of which a cereal surplus amounting 253,790 metric tons coexists with a non-cereal
surplus amounting 2,311,984 metric tons.
An analysis of carryover stocks (COS) shows that, on the eve of new marketing year a total of
505,274 tonnes of food stock was available and carried over into 2019/20 marketing year of
which 68,057.72 tonnes was held in NFRA (National Food Reserve Agency) and 5,616.24
tonnes was held in CPB (Cereals and other Produce Board) warehouses while 93,760 tonnes
was held by private stockists and 337,840 tonnes was estimated as farm retention. Added to the
2,565,774 tonnes of food surplus indicated above, the total food available, over and above
national requirement is 3,071,048 tonnes.
At national level, the upper end SSR is impressively evidenced by 11 regions (128 – 227%) that
have definitely produced surplus and 7 regions (109-119%) that are definitely self-sufficient,
while 8 regions (3-99%) is evidenced to be definitely deficit.
Over six years consecutively (2012/13 to 2018/19 of consumption year) the country has been
observed to produce surplus food in the range of 120-125.
Towards operational setting to curb food insecurity in the country, vulnerable areas are well
signaled in 46 district councils out of 184 LGAs within 13 regions out of 26 regions. The
identified vulnerable areas will be closely monitored while in-depth vulnerability assessments
will be carried out as a necessary step towards appropriate intervention actions.
The earmarked food surplus areas and food deficit areas are seen as opportunities and
challenges that need to be appropriately addressed. It is therefore highly recommended that
local market potential as per deficit regions signals should be well exploited.


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